Sooth Labs

Russ Salakhutdinov - Kimi K3 CEO’s PhD Advisor Predicts the Future of AI Agents

Kimi K3 took the world by storm last week for open-sourcing frontier level intelligence, so I sat down with Zhilin Yang's (Kimi CEO) PhD advisor Russ Salakhutdinov to talk.

Russ has been everywhere in modern AI. He did his PhD with Geoff Hinton back when neural nets were a punchline, sold his startup to Apple and worked on Project Titan, teaches at Carnegie Mellon, and spent the last couple years at Meta Superintelligence Lab building computer use agents. Now he's the founder of Sooth Labs, building AI that forecasts the future.

We talked about why there's no secret architecture inside the frontier labs and why the real moat is data, engineering, and infrastructure. He explains why Cursor and half the startups you know are quietly running on Chinese open source models, why all the LLMs are going to be commodities, and why the people actually building AGI don't buy the two-year timeline. We get into his time at Meta, why computer use agents still hit 60% when you need 99.9%, whether AI can beat prediction markets, and why the RL environment business isn't sticky. And he makes the case that AI should replace McKinsey, Bain, and BCG.

Russ Salakhutdinov - Kimi K3 CEO’s PhD Advisor Predicts the Future of AI Agents
Episode still: Russ Salakhutdinov, Sooth Labs

Chapters

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 1:26Bumping into Hinton on the street
  3. 3:25When neural nets were the third choice
  4. 5:21Generating digits before it was cool
  5. 6:59AlexNet breaks computer vision
  6. 10:18Teaching models to describe what they see
  7. 12:10Early text-to-image (and the toilet seat that beat Google)
  8. 16:52Hallucination is a feature
  9. 19:36Selling Perceptual Machines to Apple
  10. 22:45Self-driving: 0 to 80 in a year, stuck for 5
  11. 30:30Inside FSD and Waymo's architecture
  12. 34:18Building Visual Web Arena at CMU
  13. 39:07Why he joined Meta Superintelligence
  14. 40:09The agent that plans your faculty job hunt
  15. 42:00Paying people for their browser history
  16. 42:45The coupon-hunting agent
  17. 43:35Why agents still fail
  18. 46:1460% when you need 99.9%
  19. 47:04Agents on your phone
  20. 50:12No secret architecture at the frontier labs
  21. 51:20Why coding and math got solved first
  22. 54:01Models that smell and touch
  23. 56:14The future of software engineering
  24. 59:41Founding Sooth Labs
  25. 1:00:07The 13% graduation prediction
  26. 1:05:55Why ChatGPT can't forecast
  27. 1:08:12Agents first, decision systems next
  28. 1:09:23The Wikipedia contamination story
  29. 1:13:43Can AI beat prediction markets?
  30. 1:16:26AI replaces McKinsey
  31. 1:18:20Why the crowd is hard to beat
  32. 1:19:30China's open source models rise
  33. 1:24:26Why the US needs its own open models
  34. 1:25:53RL environment businesses won't last
  35. 1:28:35The end of SaaS, LLMs as commodities
  36. 1:32:55What's next: self-improvement, forecasting, robots
  37. 1:35:34The only useful robot is the Roomba
  38. 1:37:53What he'd study in college today
  39. 1:41:20Adapt or get left behind
  40. 1:44:07Wrapping up

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